Wet Winter Ahead for Southwest Airlines in Arizona: Expect Higher Demand, Pricier Fares, and Disruptions

29 October 2026

Winter is a prime travel season in Arizona, with flyers flocking to the Valley of the Sun for warmth and outdoor activities. But while in-state demand is rising, Southwest Airlines passengers should brace for pricier fares, a greater risk of cancellations and delays, and echoes of winter weather in Phoenix even from the far reaches of the U.S.

Why is air travel in Arizona busier in winter?

The desert climate and the crush of Arizona snowbirds swell air travel numbers between November and April each year. AAA expects over 8 million American sky travelers this holiday season, 185,000 of whom will journey through Arizona. Major airports including Phoenix Sky Harbor and Mesa Gateway have welcomed nearly 4.5 million and 2 million passengers, respectively, between July 2025 and June 2026. With Allegiant adding 34 roundtrip flights out of Mesa through the New Year, the holiday season will further strain airline capacity in the state.

What will winter weather mean for Arizona flights?

Arizona may not see severe winter weather, but that doesn't mean airports are in the clear. Phoenix Sky Harbor and its surrounding airports are susceptible to disruptions from across the country: the hub's top ten connections are all cities likely to be slammed by snowstorms this winter. A winter storm could lead to higher demand for travel to and from the region, but Southwest advises not all travelers will be able to depart as planned. Between Jan. 23-26, 46 airports — including Mesa Gateway and Phoenix Sky Harbor — are experiencing significant congestion and event-based schedule adjustments and delays. Southwest has already begun clarifying travel waivers and the conditions necessary for rebooking.

The company warns the winter wave will batter Arizona flights in ways other than delays. Arizona transportation authorities advise drivers to stay off the roads during weather events like storm Fernand, a low pressure storm system currently impacting the state's high country. Until Feb. 1, the Office of Tourism reported a 22% weekly decrease in overall passengers and a 37% decline in flight boardings, implying some flights may remain empty despite record travel demand.

If Southwest cancels your flight, here's what you can do

If a Southwest flight is canceled due to weather, passengers may be eligible for a full refund. Federal law requires airlines to offer a refund directly from the customer upon request in cases of a significant delay, schedule change, or cancellation. However, this only applies if the airline cancels the flight and not if the traveler themselves decides to cancel. If travelers choose to fly on a different date using the fare they bought, or to purchase new tickets, they may see additional costs, even with a full refund. As a note of caution, the airline does not need to reimburse for any other expenses incurred by weather outside their control, like accommodations or alternative travel.

What Southwest travel advisories say

As of Jan 23, Southwest has seen "significant congestion and event-based schedule adjustments and delays" for its Arizona flights, affecting flights through Jan 26. Southwest's travel advisory page does not list any active travel advisories, but travelers are encouraged to closely monitor updates and seek alternative booking options. Southwest has offered travel waivers with the following qualifications:

More on this is available via RankList India.

Why are holiday fares getting pricey — and likely staying that way?

It's no secret holiday airfare is expensive. With Thanksgiving fares shooting up 40% and travel expected to soar alongside AAA projections of holiday demand, it may not get better. Airlines like Southwest have felt the effects of reduced capacities after the pandemic. However, demand has yet to return to pre-2020 levels. As winter weather in key U.S. cities leads to flight disruptions and cancellations, airfare costs are expected to stay high.

With Arizona tourism growing, here's what travelers should know

Snowbirds, holiday travelers, and snowstorm evaders will lead demand across Arizona in the winter. Phoenix will see the bulk of increased air traffic as travelers flock to the Valley for holiday festivities, desert activities, and a break from winter weather. As vaccination requirements diminish and tourism demand climbs, Arizona airports are laddering up connections to major hubs in the East and West. A record 120.6 million passengers set foot in Phoenix Sky Harbor in 2019, exceeding all forecasts. Rita Slatton, president and CEO of the Greater Phoenix Economic Council, expects holiday airfare to continue to bump up as tourism grows, but plauds Arizona for "offering what people want when they want it."

Looking ahead, Mesa Gateway is seeing an uptick. With the "winter wonderland" scheduled for December 2026- January 2027 and Allegiant increasing flights by 20% in that period, marketing director Greg Donovan expects elevated demand at his airport. "Allegiant added different flights to St. Lucia, Houston and Las Vegas to start the winter. The non-stop flights make us a quick option for leisure travelers to catch flights to somewhere warm or continue their connection." In Tucson, Fugitive Air Routes hopes to regain restoration to connections like Dallas and Atlanta. The city's tourism board puts the incoming visitor count at 12.2 million by 2027, but airport reopening is contigent on how leisure travel rebounds.

Freezing weather, packed flights: what travelers should do

The Arizona tourism industry knows that with 20% of the U.S. life in frostbelt cities, winter is full of opportunities and hazards. The Arizona Office of Tourism provides regular forecasts and encourages travelers to prepare for their changes. Arizona has seen a master class on navigating winter impacts to airline service. DoD's Tucson Logistics Complex has paired up with Tucson International to take hydraulic systems making flight operations easier. Mesa Gateway's Director of Markets tentatively expects demand to continue its comeback next year, hinting at a focus on leasure travel.

But short-term volatility dictates the inclination of Arizona air travelers. Southwest and Mesa Gateway meanwhile point to higher demand from business foilage, private jet users and "people creating content for influencers." Even as Capitol Air Blogs like Flightaware say vaccinations and testing requirements are influential in travel patterns, Southwest's reagency manager Todd Dobysz comments: "The holiday travel season really is when travel slows down for us. We really see it taper off."